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一 |     COPENHAGEN, Denmark -- Gale-force winds and floods struck several countries in Northern Europe as the region braced for more heavy rain on Friday. In Scotland, one person was reported dead after being swept into a river and authorities searched for a man thought to be trapped in his vehicle.The gale-force winds are expected to hit hardest in the eastern part of Denmark's Jutland peninsula and the Danish islands in the Baltic Sea. But the northern part of the British Isles, southern Sweden and Norway, and northern Germany are also on the path of the storm, named Babet by U.K.’s weather forecaster, the Met Office.Eastern Scotland continued to bear the brunt of the stormy weather. On Friday, the Met Office issued a new “red” warning for parts of eastern Scotland for further flooding throughout Saturday.A 57-year-old woman died Thursday after being swept into a river in the region of Angus, where 400 homes were evacuated. A police spokeswoman said they were informed Thursday about a man within a vehicle trapped in floodwaters in nearby Marykirk.With the worst of the heavy rain in Scotland set to diminish over the coming hours, emergency services warned that rivers may still rise and breach flood defenses. Some parts of the town of Brechin are only accessible by boat after its flood defenses were overwhelmed by the heavy rainfall, raising concerns about further loss of life.“I cannot stress how dangerous conditions are in Brechin in particular,” said Scotland’s first minister, Humza Yousaf.Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (100 kph) were likely on Friday. Several major road sections and rail routes were closed in Scotland, while air passengers were facing flight cancellations.On Thursday, the Met Office issued a rare red alert — the highest level of weather warning — for parts of Scotland, predicting “exceptional rainfall” and “danger to life from fast-flowing or deep floodwater.” The last red alert in the U.K. was issued in 2020.The storm has already brought more than a month’s worth of rain in the worst-affected regions in Scotland and is set to pummel many parts of northern England over Friday.“It will probably be some kind of historic event,” Hans Peter Wandler of the Danish Meteorological Institute told the Ekstra Bladet daily. “But we’ll have to wait until it’s over to see if it’s going to be a two-year event or a 100-year event.” Police in southern Denmark — the Danish region expected to be the worst hit — said that a number of road sections in the low-lying areas were flooded and a few trees have also fallen. Citing the Danish Meteorological Institute — which issued a warning for “very dangerous weather,” its highest — police in southern Denmark said that the water level would continue to rise. Sea levels in parts of inland Danish waters were expected to rise up to 240 centimeters (nearly eight feet) above normal. In neighboring Sweden, meteorologists warned of the risk of extensive flooding which may cause limited access on roads and railways along the southern coasts of the Scandinavian country. Water levels were expected to begin dropping again on Saturday morning, Swedish meteorologists said.A bridge near Norway’s second-largest city was protectively closed, the Bergens Tidende newspaper said. Ferries across the region were canceled and air traffic was hampered, with delays and a few cancellations. The Swedish Transportation Authority suspended service of several train and bus lines in southern Sweden, because of the weather, prompting Skanetrafiken, the operator of the local transit system, to recommend ”avoiding travel on public transport.””Some regional bus routes will be canceled and there is a risk that both regional and replacement buses in service may also be canceled at short notice,” Skanetrafiken said on its website.In Germany, some streets and squares were flooded in the cities of Flensburg, Kiel and Wismar on the Baltic coast. Fallen trees caused some disruption, including a railway line. Ferry operator Scandlines suspended services on its Roedby-Puttgarden and Gedser-Rostock routes between Denmark and Germany.On Germany’s North Sea coast, the high winds had the opposite effect to the flooding on the Baltic coast, pushing the water further out and leading to very low water levels. Ferries to some North Sea islands were canceled.___Pan Pylas in London, and Geir Moulson in Berlin, contributed to this report.___Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment。    今年以来,俄罗斯的日子不好过,乌克兰凭借无人机攻势,给俄罗斯造成了不小的困扰。

二 |     8月,莫斯科上空频繁响起的防空警报声,乌克兰自杀式无人机分批次、多高度、多方向突入莫斯科空域,逼得三大机场轮流关闭,郊区工业设施冒烟。    不过,这个局面,应该很快会迎来巨变,8月24日,俄罗斯传来消息,朝鲜交付的KN-30(火星-11C)战术导弹,已经部署到俄军手上,满编6套发射装置,理论齐射120枚。    朝鲜攻坚重器交付俄军,这意味着俄罗斯的“杀手锏”再+1,或将打破俄乌战场僵局。    为什么这么说?先看数据。KN-30战斗部重达2.5吨,俄军现役“伊斯坎德尔-M”大约500公斤,美军ATACMS只有200多公斤,伊朗“霍拉姆沙赫尔-4”也不过1吨级。        弹道导弹燃料烧尽后,弹头要自己完成姿态调整和末段俯冲。

三 | 2.5吨的战斗部意味着重心剧烈位移,传统惯导系统很容易在末端失稳。    朝鲜能把这种级别的导弹打出来并交付,说明其固体燃料配方、弹体结构设计和控制算法已经跨过了某个门槛。    再看它的战术价值,俄军手里不缺巡航导弹,也不缺“匕首”这种空射高超音速武器,但“匕首”需要载机起飞,载机在乌克兰防空圈边缘活动本身就有风险。

四 |     KN-30是车载发射,能在泥地里机动,打完就撤,齐射时防空系统根本来不及重新引导雷达锁定第二波。

五 | 更关键的是,它能打穿那些藏在山体、地下、加固混凝土里的目标。    乌克兰过去两年靠什么撑住战线?靠西方资金输血,靠无人机袭扰,更靠把弹药库、指挥所、维修厂藏在地下。    这些目标此前只有“匕首”能有效摧毁,但“匕首”贵、少、用起来心疼。

六 |         KN-30来了之后,俄军可以用两到三枚齐射一座第聂伯河大桥,不是打坏桥面,是把桥墩连根拔掉。乌军七座地区关键节点,一夜之间全在射程之内。    这才叫“攻坚重器”。乌克兰自己都承认,在KN-30的面前,乌克兰的7个地区将进入打击射程。

七 |     西方媒体习惯把朝鲜武器渲染成“粗制滥造”,但KN-30的出现,打的是他们的脸。    朝鲜在固体导弹小型化、大弹头投掷能力上的进步,已经超出了很多情报机构的评估模型。        乌克兰的无人机还能继续往莫斯科飞,但战争不是靠“飞过去”就能赢的。    俄军一旦用KN-30系统性地拆掉乌军的地下节点和后勤动脉,基辅的每一次无人机袭击都将变成“绝望的象征”。    眼下,莫斯科的防空警报和乌克兰腹地的爆炸声正在形成某种残酷的同步。

八 | 当俄军不再需要心疼“匕首”的使用次数,当2.5吨的弹头可以像下雨一样砸向关键目标,这场持续数年的僵局,或许真的快走到算总账的时候了。返回,查看更多

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Published on:10:37:09


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